«上一篇/Previous Article|本期目录/Table of Contents|下一篇/Next Article»

《中华肺部疾病杂志》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:

期数:

2024年06期

页码:

855-860

栏目:

论著

出版日期:

2024-12-25

文章信息/Info

Title:

Global perspective on the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China and future trends analysis

作者:

罗宸婧¹; 盛芳芳¹; 张 静¹; 王关嵩²; 秦 蘅²; 顾 鹏¹

400037 重庆,陆军(第三)军医大学第二附属医院药学部¹
400037 重庆,陆军(第三)军医大学第二附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科²

Author(s):

Luo Chenjing¹;  Sheng Fangfang¹;  Zhang Jing¹;  Wang Guansong²;  Qin Heng²;  Gu Peng¹.

¹Department of Pharmacy; ².Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Xinqiao Hospital, Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University, Chongqing 400037, China

关键词:

肺疾病; 慢性阻塞性;  疾病负担;  风险因素;  未来趋势

Keywords:

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease;  Burden of disease;  Risk factors

分类号:

R563

DOI:

10.3877/cma.j.issn.1674-6902.2024.06.002

摘要:

目的 分析1990-2021年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD)的疾病负担及2022-2050年的变化趋势,以期为COPD防治提供参考依据。方法 提取全球疾病负担研究2021数据库中1990-2021年中国COPD疾病负担、危险因素等相关数据,应用百分比变化及年估计变化百分比分析疾病负担演变情况,并对不同性别、年龄人群进行分层分析。对所有风险因素所导致的死亡进行归因分析,使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022-2050年COPD疾病负担变化趋势。结果 2021年我国COPD发病4 434 437.77例,死亡1 285 433.17例,伤残调整寿命年为23 640 320.96例年,分别较1990年增加105.20%,3.84%和-9.42%。1990-2021年COPD的年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化病死率和年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率呈现下降趋势,年估计变化百分比分别为-0.84%,-4.25%和-4.19%。2021年男性发病2 226 848.07例,死亡752 026.94例,伤残调整寿命年13 480 743.00例年,分别较1990年增加112.81%、17.28%和-2.98%; 女性发病2 207 589.70例,死亡533 406.24例,伤残调整寿命年10 159 577.96人年,分别较1990年增加98.06%、-10.61%和-16.75%,显示出性别差异。疾病负担随着年龄增长显著增加,男性发病和伤残调整寿命年高峰分别为65～69岁和70～74岁,女性为70～74岁和80～84岁; 死亡高峰在80～84岁,无性别差异。导致COPD死亡的危险因素随时间发生变化,近5年吸烟为首位危险因素,男、女性最常见危险因素分别为吸烟和颗粒物污染。预计2022-2050年COPD的年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化病死率、年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率将持续下降,2050年分别将下降至139.71/10万、15.80/10万和362.03/10万。结论 我国COPD疾病负担仍较为严峻,应针对高危人群及风险因素制定有效防治策略。

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)in China from 1990 to 2021, and the trend of change from 2022 to 2050, in order to provide a reference for the prevention and control of COPD. Methods Chinese disease burden and risk factors of COPD from 1990 to 2021 were extracted in the Global Burden of Disease 2021. Percentage change and estimated annual percentage change were applied to analyze the evolution of the disease burden. And which in different sex and age groups was also analyzed. Deaths due to all risk factors were attributed and Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling was used to predict trends of COPD from 2022 to 2050. Results The number of incident, death, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)in 2021 were 4 434 437.77, 1 285 433.17 and 23 640 320.96, which was 105.20%, 3.84%, and -9.42% higher than 1990, reapectively. The age-standardized rate of incident, death and DALYs showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, estimated annual percentage change was -0.84%, -4.25% and -4.19%, reapectively. In 2021, the number of incident, death, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were 2 226 848.07, 752 026.94 and 13 480 743.00 among males, which was 112.81%, 17.28% and -2.98% higher than 1990, reapectively. For females, there were 2 207 589.70 cases of incidence and 533 406.24 deaths, with 10 159 577.96 DALYs, representing 98.06%, -10.61% and -16.75% higher than 1990, reapectively. Indicating a gender difference. Disease burden increased significantly with age, with the peak of incidence and DALYs for males were in the 65-69 and 70-74 years old, and for females in the 70-74 and 80-84 years old. The peak in deaths for both genders was in the 80-84 age group, with no gender difference. The risk factors leading to COPD-related deaths have changed over time, with smoking being the leading risk factor in recent five years, and the most common risk factors for males and females being smoking and particulate matter pollution,respectively. The age-standardized rate of incidence, death and DALYs will continued decrease from 2022 to 2050.,with expected decreases to 139.71/100 000、15.80/100 000 and 362.03/100 000 by 2050, respectively. Conclusion The disease burden of COPD in China remains severe, and effective prevention and treatment strategies should beformulated for high-risk populations and risk factors.

参考文献/References:

1 Celli B, Fabbri L, Criner G, et al. Definition and nomenclature of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Time for its revision[J]. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 2022, 206(11): 1317-1325.
2 Guerreiro I, Soccal PM. COPD and phenotypes[J]. Rev Med Suisse, 2019,15(671): 2082-2086.
3 Bagdonas E, Raudoniute J, Bruzauskaite I, et al. Novel aspects of pathogenesis and regeneration mechanisms in COPD[J]. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis, 2015, 10: 995-1013.
4 GBD Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators. Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017[J]. Lancet Respir Med, 2020, 8(6): 585-596.
5 GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators. Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015[J]. Lancet Respir Med, 2017, 5(9): 691-706.
6 Yin P, Wu J, Wang L, et al. The burden of COPD in China and its provinces: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. Front Public Health, 2022, 10: 859499.
7 Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J]. Lancet, 2016, 380(9859): 2095-2128.
8 Hu W, Fang L, Zhang H, et al. Global disease burden of COPD from 1990 to 2019 and prediction of future disease burden trend in China[J]. Public Health, 2022, 208: 89-97.
9 Smith MC, Wrobel JP. Epidemiology and clinical impact of major comorbidities in patients with COPD[J]. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis, 2014, 9: 871-888.
10 Mathers CD, Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030[J]. PLoS Med, 2006, 3(11): e442.
11 GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability(YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs), and healthy life expectancy(HALE)for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021[J]. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2133-2161.
12 赵军一, 赵 凤, 曲冰佳, 等.1990-2019年中国类风湿性关节炎疾病负担现状和趋势分析[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2024, 41(3): 344-348, 353.
13 Organization WH. ICD-10:International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems: tenth revision[J]. Acta Chir Iugosl, 2010, 56(3): 65-69.
14 张荣强, 李凤英. 年估计百分比变化与平均增长速度在公共卫生领域中的应用比较[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2015, 32(2): 328-329, 332.
15 Zhang L, Tong Z, Han R, et al. Spatiotemporal trends in global burden of rheumatic heart disease and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019[J]. Int J Cardiol, 2023, 384: 100-106.
16 Zhang T, Sun L, Yin X, et al. Burden of drug use disorders in the United States from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2035: results from the GBD study[J]. BMC Public Health, 2024, 24(1): 1639.
17 Halpin DMG, Celli BR, Criner GJ, et al. The GOLD Summit on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in low- and middle-income countries[J]. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2019, 23(11): 1131-1141.
18 Meghji J, Mortimer K, Agusti A, et al. Improving lung health in low-income and middle-income countries: from challenges to solutions[J]. Lancet, 2021, 397(10277): 928-940.
19 GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013[J]. Lancet, 2015, 385(9963): 117-171.
20 Christenson SA, Smith BM, Bafadhel M, et al. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease[J]. Lancet, 2022, 399(10342): 2227-2242.
21 Mannino DM, Buist AS. Global burden of COPD: risk factors, prevalence, and future trends[J]. Lancet, 2007, 370(9589): 765-773.
22 Safiri S, Carson-Chahhoud K, Noori M, et al. Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. BMJ, 2022, 378: e069679.
23 Zhong N, Wang C, Yao W, et al. Prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China: a large, population-based survey[J]. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 2007, 176(8): 753-60.
24 Wang C, Xu J, Yang L, et al. Prevalence and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China(the China Pulmonary Health [CPH] study): A national cross-sectional study[J]. Lancet, 391(10131): 1706-1717.
25 Hu W, Fang L, Zhang H, et al. Global disease burden of COPD from 1990 to 2019 and prediction of future disease burden trend in China[J]. Public health, 2022, 208: 89-97.
26 Menezes AM, Perez-Padilla R, Jardim JR, et al. PLATINO Team. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in five Latin American cities(the PLATINO study): a prevalence study[J]. Lancet, 2005, 366(9500): 1875-1881.
27 任成山, 王关嵩, 钱桂生. 慢性阻塞性肺疾病的成因及其治疗的困惑与希望[J/CD]. 中华肺部疾病杂志(电子版), 2019, 12(2): 127-141.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

基金项目: 重庆市科卫联合医学攻关重大项目(2024GGXM001)
通信作者: 顾 鹏, Email: gupengscu@tmmu.edu.cn
秦 蘅,Email: hxkqh@tmmu.edu.cn

常用功能

更新日期/Last Update: 2024-12-25